Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-12 45.063936 52.968484 61.573137 71.600366 82.927586 95.289770 109.763718
2025-01-19 30.893751 40.866683 52.756574 67.825881 86.252468 107.881252 135.004457
2025-01-26 25.213431 36.459748 50.800052 70.100389 95.034025 125.773038 166.100360
2025-02-02 22.179506 34.516758 51.130217 74.579424 106.189522 146.637749 201.517813
2025-02-09 19.152849 31.922690 50.004714 76.645667 113.936323 163.225239 232.058701
2025-02-16 16.565993 29.461099 48.596843 77.919679 120.379026 178.136279 260.861524
2025-02-23 14.140911 26.811763 46.493978 77.810076 124.627424 190.038482 285.930617
2025-03-02 11.845054 23.971233 43.692076 76.255980 126.473887 198.459661 306.347225
2025-03-09 10.193269 21.936494 41.868441 75.918487 129.920483 209.122928 330.165644
2025-03-16 8.161994 18.861669 37.931264 71.775459 127.142406 210.406461 340.377055
2025-03-23 7.411397 18.073247 37.779722 73.747187 133.924368 226.061027 372.059083
2025-03-30 6.448699 16.693642 36.401398 73.477961 137.020167 236.178336 395.808784
2025-04-06 6.055342 16.550930 37.479177 77.924190 148.716002 261.029993 444.326334
2025-04-13 4.731137 14.114306 33.921276 73.837982 146.009626 263.435582 459.072440
2025-04-20 4.263300 13.545295 33.945173 76.273611 154.529910 284.054746 502.871937
2025-04-27 4.055078 13.569150 35.176146 81.071284 167.437169 312.327841 559.788267
2025-05-04 3.656869 13.012890 35.093544 83.283363 175.827219 333.487607 606.103663
2025-05-11 3.246726 12.324822 34.620395 84.646935 182.712789 352.380736 649.400245
2025-05-18 2.796958 11.405185 33.485890 84.529637 186.801740 366.655551 685.607739
2025-05-25 2.327387 10.286614 31.708836 82.866227 187.810286 375.606273 713.251358
2025-06-01 1.993138 9.496565 30.602467 82.504939 191.240665 388.845639 748.447903
2025-06-08 1.539297 8.129022 27.795496 78.068190 186.318643 387.002340 757.921014
2025-06-15 1.401212 7.873257 27.877235 80.180086 194.596902 409.144010 809.201477